Optimism has recently intensified in the United States for economic growth , which would be on a trajectory of 3% with euphoric U.S. indices ( +29.6 % for the S & P 500 to 2013) , the unemployment rate the lowest ( 6.6 % ) , a real estate market surge and consumption ( +2.7 % at year-end ), which also seems to rise again . Marketing more effective unfortunately shatters as soon as you look at the numbers a little more closely.
6% of GDP is injected by the Fed
On economic growth, we have seen over the last 5 years to forecast a return to growth without it manifests itself in a sustainable manner , including regular high quarterly estimates but are often a few months after revised significantly down (in the most total indifference ) . It is astonishing to see how the quarterly preliminary estimates are annualized automatically , as if the subsequent quarters were by who knows what miracle follow the same trajectory.
Growth in 2013 will probably be around 1.9 %, which may seem significant compared to Europe for example, but that is just ridiculous when one takes into account the fact that the Fed has injected $ 1 trillion into the financial system for the single year 2013 ( more than 3 trillion since 2008) that is equivalent to 6 % of GDP ...
Low rebound in consumption
U.S. economic growth is at 70 % on consumption. It is further necessary that consumers see their incomes increase , or the median wage fell by 8% since 2008. The rebound in consumption observed at the end of the year means one thing : Americans have tapped into their savings yet already low ( just over 2% savings rate ) . And this is only average, half of households do not even have a savings account and 76% could not cope with an emergency situation ( unforeseen health care expenses , loss of employment for 3 -6 months ... ) .
To overcome this lack of income , Americans have resorted again to credit, including credit cards and student loans , which alone account for 1.3 trillion dollars (more than half are either in arrears or by default). Some articles in the financial press have these same statistics as a return of confidence among households ( the last time we saw such an increase was ... 2008). In fact, a return of confidence would require a real decline in unemployment.
A truncated unemployment
However, the unemployment rate of 6.6 % does not take into account discouraged people who fall more or those underemployed (part -time work , for example) . If we include these people, the unemployment rate then increases to 12.7 % ( U6 statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics ) is almost double the official rate. In total, 27 million are non- or underemployed , 11 million receive allocations of " disability" and 50 million are in the food stamps ( food stamps ) . It is estimated that, on average , 4 out of 5 people will be affected in their life of poverty.
Moreover , the jobs created are not only not enough to absorb the increase in the labor force but also highly concentrated on low value-added jobs in services ( fast food ... ) while at the same time, companies continue to cut jobs executives or technicians to significantly higher wages led to a further decline in demand .
Riches do not profit in boosting consumption
Indeed, during the crisis, companies saw their sales decline wanted at all costs to maintain their results and for this greatly reduced their numbers and also took the opportunity to redeem their shares in order to improve ( totally artificial way ) profits per share. In addition, the investment rate has not really off again except during periods of temporary restocking but do not announce movements magnitude . In all cases , listed companies are smiling with indices spraying the last records dating from 1997.
All this would not have been possible without the ultra accommodative Fed policy (zero rates and QE ) which causes inflation without common measurement of assets , whether the shares ( with a price earnings ratio ( Shiller ) high of 25.5 for the S & P 500 against a median of 16.5) , real estate (+10 % yoy ) or raw materials ( barrel of crude to more than $ 100 ), while the fundamentals of the economy are not good . The EDF welcomes the rising markets or real estate which should improve consumer confidence (the famous wealth effect). Must not forget that 53% of Americans do not hold any shares and that most of them are held by a minority with large financial assets ( but not able to stimulate consumption ) .
Similarly , increasing the value of the property benefits only a small proportion of households owning their homes in specific regions (eg New York , Miami and California ) . Many homeowners are still in " negative equity " (ready to pay more than the value of the property ) and above , this increase is dramatic for younger generations who face lower wages and leave university with debts tens of thousands of dollars making any real estate purchase completely out of their reach .
A paralyzed Congress
Finally, an assessment of the economic health of the United States would not be complete without an examination of the action of the State. Now Congress is paralyzed for the past 5 years, with threats of shutdown organized by Republicans who strongly impact the confidence and economic recovery. No major economic reform has been implemented , no rethinking of the very complex (and sometimes anti economic ) U.S. tax , no drastic improvement of the health system ( too expensive and not very effective , at the 46th largest in the world ) , or secondary school system (31st in mathematics in the last ranking PISA) . Instead, the vote of extremely complex regulations only adds costs for companies without being effective ( Dodd Frank ... ) .
Finally, the huge public debt continues to increase with a current level ( including the federal government , individual states , cities and off balance sheet) representing 160 % of GDP, which hampers all the more imperative for infrastructure renewal face competition from many Asian countries including ( China and South Korea for example).
Assets remaining
All this is a pity that the country retains many strengths. The ability of U.S. to initiate and innovate gives them an advantage with integrated highly productive ecosystems such as Silicon Valley . Most international brands are American and the economic environment is still competitive (5th place). In addition, the university system ( in contrast secondary ) still represents excellence through Harvard , Yale or MIT.
In addition, the United States are taking full advantage of the hydraulic fragmentation at the extraction of gas and oil which ensures lower energy costs and thus renewed competitiveness. Finally, the dollar remains the international currency and the United States have never hesitated to use this weapon at the expense of its commercial.
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